Even as
electric vehicles
gain in popularity, we're told again and again that internal combustion
engines aren't going away. While that may be true, it would still be
nice to kick our addiction to gasoline. Pollution, international turmoil
and energy insecurity are getting a bit tiresome. It's good news, then
that
Navigant Research is predicting a decline in the amount of gasoline we use.
In a report titled "Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption,"
Navigant Research concludes that gasoline consumption will begin to
decline after 2021, and will decrease by four percent worldwide between
2014 and 2035. While it might not be time to break out the champagne
yet, the forecast is promising. And it's not just a fluke or natural,
cyclical event, either. This is the result of conscious effort by actual
humans who are concerned about the effect gasoline use has on the Earth
and its inhabitants.
"The anticipated effects of climate change are driving international
cooperation on mitigation efforts," says Navigant Research analyst Scot
Shepard, "including reducing oil consumption in the transportation
sector. Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to
respond to these efforts, and alternative fuels - including electricity,
natural gas, and
biodiesel - are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand." Okay, maybe just a little champagne.
Navigant credits electric vehicles to a small extent for the eventual
decline in gas use, as well as development of biofuels and the like. The
group says, though, that the main factors are improvements in cars and
the internal combustion engines they use, which lead to better fuel
economy. Check out the press release from Navigant Research,
below, or see more
at the group's website.
Worldwide Gasoline Consumption Will Fall by 4 Percent from 2014 to 2035
August 4, 2014
Gasoline consumption will start to decline after 2021, report concludes
The costs of dependence on oil for transportation, which affects energy
security, environmental security, and economic stability, have become
increasingly clear to governments around the world. As a result, a
number of policies aimed at reducing oil consumption have been initiated
in many countries, including subsidizing alternative fuels and
alternative fuel vehicles, biofuels mandates, and higher fuel economy
requirements for new vehicles. According to a new report from Navigant
Research, gasoline consumption for road transportation will continue to
rise through 2021, reaching 367.3 billion gallons a year, but then start
to fall thereafter, declining to 348.1 billion gallons a year in 2035.
"The anticipated effects of climate change are driving international
cooperation on mitigation efforts, including reducing oil consumption in
the transportation sector," says Scott Shepard, research analyst with
Navigant Research. "Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually
begun to respond to these efforts, and alternative fuels ‑ including
electricity, natural gas, and biodiesel ‑ are beginning to have an
impact on global oil demand."
While the market for electric vehicles is growing at a healthy pace,
according to the report, the most impactful fuel savings strategy is
likely to come from fuel efficiency improvements in the conventional
vehicle platform and the internal combustion engine (ICE). To meet the
increased fuel economy requirements for new vehicles, automakers have
made major investments in engine downsizing, reducing vehicle weights,
and vehicle electrification.
The report, "Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption", analyzes
the global road transportation fuels market by alternative fuel and
vehicle segment (light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty
vehicles). Analysis and data are provided for the following fuels:
gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels, natural gas,
liquefied petroleum gas, electricity, and hydrogen. Global market
forecasts for energy, oil, and fuel consumption, segmented by country
and vehicle segment, extend through 2035. An Executive Summary of the
report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
John Beltz Snyder
RSS feed
Google+
Posted Aug 6th 2014 7:58PM